Pearl City, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXHW60 PHFO 311356
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
356 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue through the
weekend, then gradually ease early next week. Clouds and light
showers will focus along windward and mauka areas, particularly
overnight and during the early morning hours as a rather dry and
stable airmass settles over the state and persists over the next
several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure far north of the state will continue to
interact with a series of tropical cyclones passing well south of
the island chain to tighten the local pressure gradient and bring
breezy to locally windy trade winds across the state over the next
couple of days. A Wind Advisory for portions of the Big Island and
Maui County has been issued as winds are expected to strengthen
through the morning hours and reach low end advisory levels. The
morning upper air soundings from Hilo and Lihue both showed a
strong inversion heights around 5000 feet, indicative of the
stable airmass overhead that could also help induce breezy. These
stable, breezy to locally windy trades will focus clouds and
light showers over windward and mauka areas as batches of shallow
moisture filter across the region, particularly during the
overnight to early morning hours. The strengthening trades may
also help to carry over light showers into some leeward areas at
times.

As the tropical cyclones to our south weaken and move further
away early next week, the local pressure gradient may relax some,
allowing the trades to ease slightly. However, other than this
slight decrease in wind speeds, a typical trade wind weather
pattern should continue through Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will make for prevailing VFR
conditions. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with low
clouds and showers facing windward and mountain areas in the
overnight to early morning hours.

The trade winds will be strong enough to keep AIRMET Tango in
place for the foreseeable future. AIRMET Sierra has been
cancelled as low cloud ceilings have diminished.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will help generate
fresh to locally near gale trades for the remainder of the work
week. By this weekend, the high will strengthen slightly and bring
more widespread strong trades to the local waters. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most marine zones surrounding
Maui and the Big Island through tonight, but expect to extended
into Friday. Additional zones will likely be added to the SCA this
weekend due to the increasing winds. Trades then begin to weaken
early next week as the aforementioned high drifts further east.

Tropical Storm Iona continues to track to the west, far southwest
of the main Hawaiian Islands. Additional tropical cyclone
development is possible far southeast of Hawaii over the next day
or so, but expecting little to no impact on our local waters.

Long period forerunners from the south swell event have already
begun to show up at our local nearshore buoys. This swell will
continue to build in across the islands through this afternoon,
peak late today through Friday, then slowly lower thereafter. This
first south swell event will be followed by another long period
south swell early next week. As a result, a High Surf Advisory
remains in effect for the south facing shores of all islands
through today, but the advisory may need to be extended in time or
upgraded to a warning depending on buoy observations towards the
peak of the event.

East shore surf will remain elevated and choppy due to locally
strong trade winds through this weekend. This will be followed by
a decline early next week as trades weaken.

Flat summer conditions along north facing shores may be
interrupted late this weekend by a small long period northwest
swell from Typhoon Krosa, currently in the western Pacific.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds speeds are expected to reach 20 mph along some leeward
locations by this afternoon under dry and stable conditions.
Borderline critical conditions are still expected today. The
limiting factor is how low the relative humidity values will reach
today into the weekend as an area of moisture slowly exits west
of the state. Currently, critical conditions, if reached, are not
expected to persist long enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning, but
will continue to monitor.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Southeast-
Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central
Valley South-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Kohala-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-
Maui Central Valley South-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-
Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza/Shigesato
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza/Shigesato